FIRE Calculator

Annual Expenses

Enter how much you spend per year in retirement. Include all regular costs — housing, food, healthcare, travel, insurance. If unsure, start with your current spending and adjust. Tip: check our AI Budget Analysis prompt template for a quick breakdown using ChatGPT or Claude.

Currency

Choose your home currency. Inflation rates and portfolio returns are automatically sourced for that country.

Retirement Year

The year you plan to stop working. If you're already retired, select this year.

Years to Cover

How many years of retirement to model. 30 years is a common starting point for someone retiring around 60–65.

Current Savings and Assets

The total lump sum you'll have available at retirement — savings accounts, investment portfolios, and any other liquid assets you plan to draw from. Don't include property or pension here unless you intend to convert them to cash before retirement.

Inflation

Toggle on to have expenses grow each year. The calculator uses historical CPI data for your selected country. Choose between a geometric-mean average or higher percentiles (75th / 90th) to stress-test against elevated inflation. You can also enter a manual rate.

Savings Growth (Investment Portfolio)

How your savings grow each year while they're invested. Pick a risk profile that matches your allocation:

Cash — savings account rates
Conservative — 75% bonds, 25% equities
Balanced — 60% equities, 40% bonds
Aggressive — 75% equities, 25% bonds

Returns are geometric means of long-term historical data. The Monte Carlo section below will show you the impact of year-to-year volatility on these returns.

Important: Fixed-return projections assume the same percentage every year. In reality, the order in which returns arrive (sequence-of-returns risk) can dramatically change outcomes — a market crash in early retirement is far more damaging than one later. The Monte Carlo simulation captures this by randomizing annual returns.

Total Nominal Withdrawals: The nominal sum of every yearly expense across your retirement, with inflation applied if enabled. This is not the capital you need today — it's the gross cashflow you'll draw over time. Compare your projected savings against this figure to see whether you can cover the full retirement period.
Savings Last: How many years your current savings can fund, factoring in investment returns. If it exceeds the period you set, you'll see a surplus.
Shortfall / Surplus: Shortfall A shortfall (red) means your savings run out before the end of the plan. Surplus A surplus (green) means you have money left over after covering all projected expenses.
Inflation Adjustment: If inflation is enabled, the info bar shows how your expenses grow from today's value to their inflation-adjusted value at the retirement year. This affects Total Nominal Withdrawals and all yearly figures.
Yearly Breakdown: Expand to see each year's expense, monthly equivalent, running total, and remaining savings. If investment growth is active, an additional column shows the return earned that year.
Savings Depletion: Once remaining savings hit zero, the row is highlighted. From that year onward, expenses are no longer covered by your pot.

Note on the base calculation

The table above uses a fixed annual return — it's useful for a quick sanity check but doesn't capture the randomness of real markets. For a realistic picture, scroll down to the Monte Carlo section.

Instead of assuming the same return every year, the simulator draws a random return for each year from a distribution based on your selected portfolio's historical mean and volatility. It does this 1,000 times, producing 1,000 different possible futures for your savings.

Why it matters: A fixed 7% return every year looks great on paper. But if the market drops 30% in year one and recovers later, you've already withdrawn from a smaller balance — and your savings may never recover. By running thousands of randomized paths, Monte Carlo shows you the probability of success, not just one optimistic line.
Success Rate: The percentage of simulations where your savings lasted the full period. Above 85% is generally considered comfortable; below 70% suggests you may need to adjust spending, save more, or delay retirement.
Percentile Bands Chart: The fan chart shows how your savings evolve over time across all simulations:
Light band (P10–P90): 80% of outcomes fall in this range.
Dark band (P25–P75): the middle 50% — a more "likely" corridor.
Blue line (P50): the median outcome — half above, half below.
Hover over the chart to see exact values at each year.
End-of-Period Outcomes: A snapshot of how much you'd have left at the end of the plan under five scenarios (P10 through P90). If even the pessimistic scenario shows a positive balance, your plan is robust.

Tip: If the success rate is lower than you'd like, try adjusting your plan — increase savings, reduce expenses, or consider a more conservative withdrawal rate. Even small changes can significantly improve your odds.